No question, powers rise and fall. It is the immutable law of nature and of geopolitics. The US has dominated the globe both in the economic, military and geopolitical spheres for over half a century and beyond, frankly since the end of the Second World War.
Hence, this is often described as the US century. So, it is natural for any nation that has been on top for such a long time to expect emerging powers to challenge it.
So, the ongoing realignment of the globe’s economic and geopolitical power structure is to be expected. However, any boxer who has faced a dominant, undefeated super heavyweight champion of the world knows it is much easier to talk about dethroning him than actually doing it.
So, when you see and hear all the hyperventilation about the decline of the US and how its dethronement is imminent, take it with more than a pinch of salt. The US is not sitting on its rear end waiting for someone to walk up and take the championship belt from it.
Whoever wants the crown would have to do better that the iconic Zaire Kinshasa rumble in the jungle bout to get it.
So, when you see a half-baked, amateurish, voice-over, outlandish, really hogwash of a video reporting China suspending all trade with the U.S., you need to put your thinking cap on.
It is so outlandish and an obvious no-brainer hogwash, that it is so shocking that anyone will share that video. Anyway, no surprises here.
Almost anything, including the master of all absurdities, gets shared on Nigerian social media, including a platform like the “Great Minds” populated by the cream de la cream of Nigerian intellectuals and movers and shakers of society.
We have already entered the phase of the diminution and override of the human neural cells by AI. We are so bombarded with information overkill to the point that we are slowly losing our ability to conduct nuance and critical analysis of information.
Otherwise, why would anyone share a video that announced with fanfare and so authoritatively that China has officially cut off all trade with the US!!!?
For China to do that will be akin to a man cutting off his trachea to stop the passage of inspired and expired air into and out his lungs. Does that even pass the laugh test? Yet people are mindlessly sharing that video on Nigeria social media predicting a global economic earthquake.
China is an export dependent economy while the U.S. is a consumption-based economy (the consumer confidence index is a great indicator of US’s economic health). China economy will crumble like a house of cards without demand from the West, especially the U.S. for its manufactured goods.
Yes, the exploding Chinese middle class and super rich is changing its economy to a more mature consumption and service driven economy, but it still depends on exports for its sustenance.
So, this ridiculous post about China suspending trade with US and how BRIC is a threat to a dollarized global economy in the near term, reveals an abject misreading and lack of knowledge of how the global economy operates.
While China and Russia might want to use BRIC as a counterbalance and in fact, anti-U.S. body in their geopolitical struggle with the U.S., India and Brazil have a different objective.
Brazil is in the orbit of the North and South America economic zone. India is trying to decouple its military from its reliance on Russia for her military equipment.
Who would blame them after what the world has now seen about the incompetence weakness of Russia’s military industrial capacity and its military?
Russia’s overblown and oversold military is depending on Iran made drones and missile from North Korea in its disastrous war against Ukraine. India is a rising global power.
It just landed its spacecraft on the moon, the first country to do so on the more challenging moon’s southern hemisphere. Juxtapose that against Russia’s space mission to the moon which just failed spectacularly.
Global policy analysis requires nuanced and critical analysis than simply sharing alarmist, half baked propaganda of an economic earthquake.
The US, because of the dynamism of its economy, and its leadership as the innovation heartbeats of the globe’s economy, will continue to remain a major, albeit diminished force in the globe economy as new power centres emerge.
India is the country to watch. It also has territorial dispute with China. The Indian diaspora is also deeply entrenched and connected to the U.S. with high profile Indians in both the political and more so in the economic domain.
Anyone who is hoping India will align with China or Russia in opposition to the West should look at who is the current occupant of No 10 Downing Street, the residence of the UK Prime Minister.
In case we have forgotten, Rishi Sunak is a full-blooded British-Indian.
About the Author: A current affairs analyst, Prof. Wale Alonge is a university Don and Head, Africa-Diaspora Partnership for Empowerment and Development (ADPED) based in Miami, Florida.
